Written By: Faith Jemosop
In a rare moment of optimism, Eskom’s latest statement assures South Africans that summer 2025 will bring energy stability. After years of blackouts, load shedding, and weary candlelit dinners, this might sound like a welcome reprieve.
But not everyone is convinced.
For many experts tracking the state utility’s tangled web of aging infrastructure, inconsistent coal supply, and climate threats, the rosy forecast raises more questions than comfort. Can we really trust the power will stay on just because the season changes? Or is this just another calm before the inevitable outage storm?
Let’s unpack why Eskom’s promise might be overly hopeful and why real stability remains elusive.
Eskom’s Summer 2025 Energy Forecast: Hope or Hype?
At face value, the Eskom summer 2025 energy forecast paints a bright picture. Spokespersons cite reduced demand in warmer months and maintenance schedules that will supposedly improve plant performance. According to the utility, key generation units will undergo refurbishment during this window, lowering the risk of breakdowns later in the year.
But South Africans have heard this before.
“It’s the same narrative every year,” says Thando Masilela, an independent energy analyst in Johannesburg. “We’re told summer brings relief, but they rarely account for the full picture like supply chain vulnerabilities, coal quality issues, and especially unexpected weather events.”
Why Season Isn’t a Guarantee
Eskom reliability summer vs winter has long been a talking point. In winter, demand spikes due to heaters and longer dark hours. Summer, with its lower residential usage, should theoretically ease strain on the grid.
Yet that’s not always how it plays out.
Take December 2023, when floods in Mpumalanga shut down coal transport routes for days, stalling fuel delivery to key stations. Or January 2024, when multiple unit failures at the aging Tutuka and Duvha plants led to stage 4 load shedding despite mild demand.
“We can’t assume summer is safe just because heaters are off,” explains Dr. Kamogelo Radebe, a senior engineer at the University of Cape Town’s Energy Research Centre. “The real issue isn’t seasonal it’s structural.”
A Closer Look: The Fragile Backbone of South Africa’s Grid
Eskom still generates over 80% of its electricity from coal, much of it from outdated power stations. These aging plants require near-constant maintenance, and many are operating far beyond their intended lifespan.
Impact of plant failure on energy supply is often immediate and severe. A single unit going offline can strip thousands of megawatts from the grid. Multiply that by several plants and you have the recipe for a national blackout.
Worse, these failures are not rare. In 2024 alone, Kendal, Matla, and Kusile experienced over a dozen unplanned outages. Each of these triggered rolling blackouts affecting millions.
Add to that the coal supply crisis from logistical delays to poor-quality feedstock and you begin to see the cracks beneath the surface of Eskom’s sunny forecast.
Climate Complications: Floods, Heat, and Unseen Variables
Another key factor often glossed over is climate variability. In a region where extreme weather is becoming more frequent, South Africa’s grid is increasingly vulnerable to climate-induced disruptions.
“Eskom’s systems were not built for a changing climate,” says environmental journalist Nandi Molefe. “Heatwaves can affect transformer efficiency, while floods disrupt logistics and damage infrastructure. These aren’t future threats they’re current realities.”
Indeed, the 2023 summer floods in KwaZulu-Natal and the extreme heat spikes across Limpopo caused widespread strain on already weakened networks.
So while Eskom’s outlook may account for scheduled maintenance and demand forecasts, it remains worryingly thin on resilience.
Real People, Real Consequences: Life in the Energy Gap
In the rural village of Mahlakeng, 34-year-old mother of three, Nomsa Ncube, knows first-hand what instability means.
Last year, a sudden plant trip knocked out power to her area for five days. Without refrigeration, her stock for a small grocery business spoiled. “I lost more than R2,000 in one weekend,” she recalls. “And I couldn’t even charge my phone to reach customers.”
Her story is far from unique. Across South Africa, millions rely on consistent power for their livelihoods from urban start-ups to remote subsistence farms. These are the people caught in the gap between Eskom’s promises and the grid’s fragility.
What Needs to Change? Beyond Wishful Forecasting
To truly stabilize energy supply, experts agree on three priorities:
- Accelerated investment in renewables and storage to reduce coal dependency.
- Decentralized energy systems like microgrids for rural resilience.
- Transparency and accountability from Eskom regarding risks and infrastructure failures.
Also read: Blackouts by Winter Pollution by Summer Is South Africa’s Energy Strategy Killing Us?
“The public needs more than optimism,” Dr. Radebe insists. “We need grounded planning, honest communication, and urgent reform.”
Stability Is More Than a Season
The South Africa power crisis analysis isn’t just about power stations and policy. It’s about whether children can study at night, whether businesses can operate consistently, and whether families can trust that tomorrow’s light switch will actually work.
Summer might offer a break but it’s not a solution.
And until Eskom confronts its deep structural flaws with the same urgency as it issues hopeful forecasts, South Africans may need to keep their candles close at hand.
