South Africa is far off course on multiple energy milestones, from keeping the lights on today to building the cleaner power system promised for 2030. A review of official targets and real-world delivery shows the country missing by a wide margin on electricity capacity, renewable buildout, and emissions goals even as Eskom rushes out new procurement schemes and grid plans to catch up.
South Africa’s National Development Plan (NDP) envisioned a major expansion of electricity supply by 2030, with 29,000 MW of new capacity, the bulk from renewables. More than a decade later, delivery is well short of the trajectory needed to hit that mark. A recent analysis underscored the gap bluntly: South Africa is “set to miss its energy target by a country mile.”
Compounding the shortfall, Eskom has repeatedly missed its own Energy Availability Factor (EAF) benchmarks set at 60% (2023), 65% (2024), and 70% (2025) leaving less usable power from the existing fleet and prolonging the risk of load-shedding. Current EAF hovers well below target.
Targets vs. reality
- Capacity expansion (NDP/IRP): The NDP called for a heavy tilt to renewables, targeting ~20,000 MW of renewables within a 29,000 MW system expansion by 2030. Yet South Africa’s large-scale renewables tally (connected or under construction) was about 15 GW in 2024, implying a steep climb remains and that figure includes projects still being built.
- Share of renewables in generation: Independent assessments project only ~20% of electricity from renewables by 2030, below the ambition signaled during the country’s “just energy transition” commitments.
- Eskom’s operational recovery: The utility has not reached its staged EAF goals, despite plans to add units back from long outages (Koeberg, Kusile, Medupi) and promises of “big swings” in 2025. The missed EAF milestones are a central driver of ongoing supply insecurity.
- Climate commitments: Government officials have acknowledged South Africa will miss its binding 2030 emissions target under the Paris Agreement, in part due to extended lifetimes for coal plants to keep the grid stable while new capacity lags.
Why the shortfall is so large
1) Procurement delays & policy uncertainty. Successive rounds of the Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP) stalled or slowed, while price spikes and supply-chain shocks post-2020 forced re-pricing and cancellations. That has pushed timelines right as demand for new, dispatchable clean capacity rose.
2) Grid bottlenecks. The best wind and solar resources in the Cape provinces are grid-constrained. Transmission buildout has lagged needs, limiting new project connections. Eskom’s Transmission Development planning speaks to the scale of the catch-up required ~14,000 km of new lines and ~37 GW of connection capacity by early 2030s. Until those lines exist, megawatts on paper won’t translate to electrons on the system.
3) Ageing coal fleet performance. High breakdown rates in an old, maintenance-starved fleet keep the EAF depressed. Every missed EAF point forces more diesel speakers, curtailment, and load-shedding and diverts money from investment to emergency operations.
4) Finance and transition friction. International transition finance has been uneven and politically fraught, creating stop-go signals for coal retirements and repowering projects. That uncertainty has slowed the glidepath from coal to renewables and storage.
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Despite the setbacks, there are concrete if late moves to bend the curve:
- Eskom’s Renewable Energy Offtake Programme. Announced in August 2025, Eskom is inviting large users and traders into long-term offtake deals for renewable energy, with a dedicated renewables business targeting 2 GW construction-ready by 2026 and a longer-term vision of 32 GW by 2040. The aim is to accelerate project bankability and grid-friendly integration.
- Utility-scale additions. Eskom says it plans to add 5.9 GW of renewables by 2030 on its side of the meter, modest versus national needs, but a directional shift for a historically coal-dominant utility.
- Transmission sprint. The transmission buildout pushes expanding corridors to the Cape wind/solar hubs is the single most important enabler. Industry guidance points to multi-year projects across thousands of kilometres to unlock connection capacity through 2033.
- Curtailment and grid reforms. Eskom has begun limited curtailment (controlled, small reductions of wind output at times of congestion) to free up ~3.47 GW of wind connection capacity in the Eastern and Western Cape, a pragmatic, near-term tool many mature markets use.
What “missing by a country mile” means for 2026–2030
Power adequacy risk persists. With EAF under plan and new builds lagging, the system will remain tight through the middle of the decade. Any slippage in bringing back large units (or further coal breakdowns) raises the odds of renewed load-shedding during demand peaks.
Costs stay elevated. Emergency diesel burn, delay penalties, and deferred maintenance show up in tariffs and municipal finances. Under-delivery also weakens business confidence, slowing re-industrialisation and job creation the NDP envisioned.
Climate finance conditionality hardens. Admitted non-compliance with the 2030 emissions target makes it tougher to secure concessional funding and can add strings to future support, although long-term net-zero pledges remain.
But the window isn’t closed. South Africa still has world-class wind and solar resources, a deep IPP pipeline, strong domestic developers, and growing private-sector demand for clean power. With faster grid builds, streamlined permitting, and clear offtake routes, the country can compress timelines not to “catch up” fully by 2030, but to put 2030–2040 on a credible path.
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What must happen next
- Lock the grid program publish and execute a binding, fully funded transmission schedule with quarterly progress reporting. Without wires, nothing else matters.
- Stabilize the coal fleet realistic EAF (not aspirational) plus targeted life-extension where unavoidable, paired with firm timelines for repowering/retirement.
- Scale storage accelerates battery storage tenders and hybrid wind-solar-storage projects to firm variable capacity and smooth evening peaks.
- De-risk IPPs expand curtailment frameworks, fix permitting bottlenecks, and standardize bankable offtake contracts, including Eskom’s new offtake window for large users.
- Protecting social outcomes make community transition plans integral to retirements to avoid repeats of past missteps and keep international partners engaged.