Nigeria Beats OPEC Oil Target, Can It Sustain the Momentum?

Nigeria has exceeded its crude oil production quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the first time since late 2023.

According to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production reached 1.539 million barrels in January 2025.

This figure is above the 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) quota allocated to Nigeria.

This increase is a major milestone, especially since Nigeria struggled to meet its OPEC quota in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

In December 2024, Nigeria came close, reaching 98.97% compliance with an output of 1.48 million bpd. Because of this, OPEC extended Nigeria’s production quota to 2026.

OPEC gets its production data from direct communication with member countries and secondary sources such as energy intelligence platforms.

While Nigerian officials reported 1.539 million bpd, secondary sources cited a slightly lower figure of 1.495 million bpd.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported an even higher daily average of 1.737 million bpd, including both crude oil (1.538 million bpd) and condensate (198,738 bpd).

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Despite this progress, Nigeria’s oil sector still faces problems. Oil theft remains a major issue, affecting the country’s production capacity.

Illegal pipeline connections and refineries cause major losses, with estimates showing Nigeria loses 700,000 barrels of crude oil daily to the international black market.

Efforts to stop oil theft are ongoing. The NUPRC reported uncovering new illegal pipeline connections and recovering over 1,467 trucks loaded with stolen crude oil.

Thousands of illegal refineries have been identified, and many vandalized pipelines have been repaired.

Looking ahead, Nigeria has big goals for oil production. The government aims to increase daily production to 2.1 million bpd in 2025, with a long-term goal of 3 million bpd.

A key part of this plan is the Dangote Refinery, which is nearing full production capacity. Once fully operational, the refinery is expected to process about 650,000 barrels of crude per day.

OPEC expects the refinery to stabilize the petroleum product supply and possibly lower petrol prices in Nigeria.

Nigeria is also maintaining its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, ahead of Algeria, which produced 907,000 bpd in January. Congo produced 251,000 bpd, making it the third-largest oil producer in Africa.

While Nigeria’s recent increase in oil production is good news, the country must tackle oil theft and pipeline vandalism to keep up the momentum and fully benefit from its oil resources.

The success of the Dangote Refinery and continued action against illegal activities will be key to meeting Nigeria’s production targets and ensuring energy security.