South Africa’s onshore wind market is projected to grow from US$902.4 million in 2026 to US$6.368 billion by 2031, according to a forecast published by MarketsandMarkets in September 2026. The research firm estimates a compound annual growth rate of 24.2% over the five-year period, reflecting expected expansion in wind project development, turbine supply and associated electrical infrastructure. These figures represent projected market value rather than confirmed investment or installed generation capacity.
The forecast comes as wind power occupies a growing role in South Africa’s efforts to diversify electricity supply and reduce dependence on coal-fired generation. The country’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme has supported utility-scale renewable energy development, while private power procurement has created additional routes for developers to supply electricity to businesses. Wind projects can also complement solar generation because wind output patterns differ from solar’s daylight-dependent production, although the value of that complementarity varies by location and operating conditions.
South Africa already has a substantial base of wind projects. The South African Wind Energy Association’s 2025 Wind Energy Market Intelligence Report recorded 6,882 MW of onshore wind capacity across operational and under-construction wind farms as of October 2025. The report also identified approximately 60 GW of wind and wind-plus-battery-storage projects in the broader development pipeline, spanning different stages of maturity. That pipeline signals developer interest, but it should not be treated as capacity certain to reach construction or operation.
Grid access remains a key factor in determining how much of that pipeline can be delivered. Transmission capacity in parts of the country with strong renewable energy resources has constrained new connections, making network expansion and connection availability central to project development. The Global Wind Energy Council reported in April 2026 that South Africa had more than 4 GW of operational wind capacity at the end of 2025, approximately 2.8 GW under construction and a pipeline exceeding 60 GW. It also identified about 17 GW of advanced projects that could enter construction within five years, while noting grid constraints on new installations.
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The pace of market growth will therefore depend on more than demand for turbines. Developers need viable power-purchase agreements, financing, permits, equipment and construction capacity, as well as access to transmission infrastructure. Delays in any of these areas can postpone projects and the associated spending, even where wind resources and investor interest are strong. The distinction matters because a growing development pipeline does not automatically translate into new generating capacity on the grid.
MarketsandMarkets identifies turbines and electrical infrastructure as components of the onshore wind market, with turbine systems rated above 5 MW listed as the fastest-growing segment in its broader market analysis. Larger turbines can increase the generating capacity of individual installations, but their deployment still depends on site conditions, project economics and grid requirements. The firm’s US$6.368 billion forecast points to a potentially expanding market through 2031; whether that growth materialises will depend on South Africa’s ability to turn its project pipeline into financed, connected and operating wind farms.
