By Thuita Gatero
The Copperbelt region, spanning Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is at the heart of a mineral rush that powers the world’s energy transition.
With copper and cobalt production soaring—copper prices near $10,000 per ton and cobalt demand projected to hit 222,000 metric tons by 2025—miners are racing to secure hundreds of additional megawatts over the next five years.
This unprecedented energy demand has sparked transformative projects: a greenfield 400kV Zambia-Mozambique interconnector, a $500 million fundraise by Copperbelt Energy Corporation (CEC) for generation and transmission, and Barrick Gold’s pivot to solar and wind capacity, writes energy analyst Chiwoyu Sinyangwe from Kitwe and Lusaka.
But as the region bets big on infrastructure to fuel its mines, can it meet the global appetite for cobalt while navigating power shortages, ethical concerns, and technological shifts?
The Copperbelt holds over 10% of global copper reserves and produces 76% of the world’s cobalt, a critical battery metal. Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, contributes 4% of global copper output, while the DRC dominates cobalt, supplying 77% of the 200,100 metric tons demanded globally in 2023.
These minerals drive economies—mining generates 70% of Zambia’s export earnings and employs tens of thousands across both nations. Yet, the sector’s growth hinges on energy, and the region’s power grid is buckling under the strain.
Cobalt demand, growing at an 8.9% CAGR, is fueled by electric vehicles (EVs), which consumed 90,045 metric tons in 2023, 45% of total demand.
By 2030, cobalt use in e-mobility batteries could reach 176,000 metric tons, driven by policies like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and 1.3 million monthly EV sales globally in 2025.
Consumer electronics (26%), aerospace superalloys (13%), and industrial tools (8%) add steady demand, pushing forecasts to 469,380 metric tons by 2034.
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However, oversupply—2024 production hit 300,000 metric tons—has depressed prices to $33,660 per ton, challenging miners’ margins.
Energy constraints threaten this growth. Zambia’s 3,777-megawatt grid, 85% hydropower, has faltered amid El Niño-driven droughts, with Kariba Dam at 1.66% usable storage in 2023, slashing output to 1,019 megawatts last year.
DRC mines often rely on diesel, inflating costs. To bridge the gap—estimated at 500–700 megawatts by 2030—three major initiatives are underway.
Zambia-Mozambique Interconnector
The proposed 400kV interconnector aims to link Zambia’s Copperbelt to Mozambique’s gas and hydro resources, including a 450-megawatt gas plant due in 2025.
Integrated with the Southern African Power Pool, it could ease Zambia’s power rationing—households now get just three hours daily—and reduce reliance on South Africa’s 250-megawatt imports.
Costing over $300 million, the project promises to stabilize supply for mines consuming 520 megawatts, but financing and timelines remain hurdles.
CEC’s $500 Million Vision
CEC, powering eight Zambian mines, is raising $500 million to expand renewables and transmission. Its 94-megawatt solar portfolio, boosted by the 60-megawatt Itimpi-1 plant in 2024, will grow with a 136-megawatt phase funded by a $96.7 million green bond, part of a $200 million oversubscribed program.
CEC’s Zambia-DRC line, handling 250 megawatts, will double to 550 megawatts by 2026, supporting DRC’s Katanga mines. Despite 43% revenue growth to $547.7 million in 2024, profits fell 30% to $97 million due to drought costs.
CEC’s wind power plans signal a shift from faltering hydropower.
Barrick’s Renewable Leap
Barrick Gold, operator of the 390-million-ton Lumwana copper mine, is procuring 50–100 megawatts of solar and wind to secure reliable power. This move, mirroring trends among miners like Vedanta, hedges against Zesco’s 40% power cuts in 2023 and aligns with sustainability goals, as cobalt faces scrutiny for artisanal mining practices in the DRC, where workers earn $2–3 daily despite cobalt’s $50,000-per-ton value.
The Copperbelt’s fate is tied to cobalt’s trajectory. While EV demand drives growth, risks loom. Lithium iron phosphate batteries, cobalt-free and holding 30% of the EV market, threaten substitution.
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Recycling, contributing 10,000 metric tons annually, could rise post-2025 as EV batteries retire. Ethical concerns—DRC’s labor conditions—push demand for “clean” cobalt, complicating supply chains.
China, processing 80% of cobalt intermediates, dominates refining, while geopolitical tensions between Chinese and Western investors in the Copperbelt add uncertainty.
These power projects signal ambition, but their success is not guaranteed. The interconnector’s costs and CEC’s debt burden—despite a 230% bond oversubscription—require flawless execution.
Barrick’s renewables, while promising, face logistical challenges in a region where grid integration lags. Meanwhile, cobalt’s volatility, with prices swinging from 20-year lows to recent DRC-driven spikes, tests miners’ resilience.
The Copperbelt stands at a crossroads. Can it harness enough power to fuel its mines and meet global cobalt demand? Or will energy shortfalls, market shifts, and ethical dilemmas dim its prospects? As the world races toward net zero, the region’s ability to deliver will shape not just its future, but the pace of the global energy transition.
